Summary:
The project takes place against the backdrop of political change. Recent land and water reforms aim to transfer at least 30% of South Africa’s agricultural land and water to people defined as “previously disadvantaged” during the apartheid era. The process has been slow, but some of the most successful land reform projects have been in the fruit and wine industry. This sector, however, is extremely vulnerable to climate change.
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Synopsis:
The Western Cape is a valuable agricultural area and is experiencing increasing competition for water from agricultural and urban use. Projections suggest a future reduction in rainfall. This project integrates seasonal climate variability with decadal forecasts and long-term scenarios. It features a previously tested model, stakeholder engagement and capacity-building in order to better integrate information on climate change and variability into water resources policy and management
Overview:
This project combines the hard science of predicting climate impacts with the delicate art of helping institutions apply that knowledge to water resource policies and planning. It brings a multidisciplinary team of scientists together with farmers, community and industry groups, and a range of local planning authorities.
With input from stakeholders, the research team will use an integrated modelling approach – one that combines climate change scenarios, a hydrological model, and an economic model to analyse and suggest the most practical and efficient ways of sharing water.
The models will demonstrate costs, benefits, and risks associated with likely changes in the climate, and different approaches to land and water use. The modelling tools aim to separate short-term variation in the region’s weather – say, a short run of unusually wet years – from the likely long-term, enduring changes that may result from climate change. These models and the options they produce will be shared with stakeholders so they can make better-informed decisions about investments and water use.
For Jabavu Nkomo, a senior program specialist with the Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program, the project’s value lies in what it will bring to water resource users.
”This project will build the capacity of water users and the political bodies trying to ensure adequate and equitably-shared water supplies for the future. It will see the results and skills developed shared with those most affected by changes in water supply.”
To develop these models and transfer the knowledge of how to apply them, the research team draws on a range of expertise in climate modelling and prediction, economic and hydrological modelling, and capacity building. Partner institutions include the University of Cape Town’s Climate Systems Analysis Group; the agricultural economics department at the University of the Free State and Optimal Agricultural Business Systems; the UNEP Risoe Centre on Energy, Climate, and Sustainable Development; the International Research Institute; and the University of KwaZulu-Natal School of Bioresources Engineering and Environmental Hydrology.
Source: AfricaAdapt, www.africa-adapt.net, 18 December 2009.
Results and Learning:
On the ground: involving users from the outset
At this early stage, the project team is identifying stakeholders, planning farm surveys, and doing regional outreach. Raising awareness is an important first step.
“We need to overcome bureaucracy in the different institutions,” says UCT’s Peter Johnston.
Cape farmers already are concerned about climate risk and water supply.
According to Billy Bourbon-Leftley of Loevenstein farm located on the Berg River, “the past six years have already shown a different weather pattern than what we were used to. Although this winter’s rainfall was high, we had very strict water restrictions for two years because of previous dry seasons and insufficient water resources.”
The Berg River basin northeast of Cape Town supplies water to the city and to surrounding fruit farmers. The Berg River Catchment Management Agency (CMA), in which all water users are represented, is therefore a key stakeholder.
The Berg CMA illustrates the pressure on planners dealing with water and climate issues. Construction of the Berg River Dam has just been completed and more reservoirs are on the drawing board. But there are few other suitable dam sites left for development on the river and those under construction are small.
One early success has been to see the Berg CMA add climate change to its standing agenda so that it is part and parcel of the water authority’s planning and implementation processes.
Project leader Daan Louw of the University of the Free State says that as they design their water resource policies, it is extremely important that institutions in developing countries combine planning for economic development with planning for climate change.
Source: AfricaAdapt, www.africa-adapt.net, 18 December 2009.
Sustainability:
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Replication:
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